Water ExiaTier 2
at Magitek Store Champ
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.5%
avg ELO -6.0 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1280
· median 1280
· range 1280–1280
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1280
Q3 1484
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 12.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -6.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 12.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Water Genbu | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Byakko | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
